Buterin Disputes AI-Driven Prediction of 50% Bitcoin Price Crash

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has pushed back against a prediction made by investor and AI-risk commentator Liron Shapira that artificial intelligence could cause Bitcoin's price to fall by more than 50% within two years.

Shapira assigned a '50% confidence' level to his prediction, which is based on the idea that AI could weaken what users consider the network's security or robustness. However, Buterin disagrees with this assessment and believes that Bitcoin's technical adaptability will allow it to address most AI-related threats without changing its core social agreement.

Buterin argues that the main risk lies in managing the transition to a world where attackers and defenders both use increasingly capable AI systems. He notes that network-layer exploits, client vulnerabilities, and attacks against mining infrastructure can be addressed through software updates, but would not necessarily invalidate Bitcoin's proof-of-work design.

Buterin also believes that AI could help attackers identify flaws in node software, wallet code, or communications infrastructure, but argues that defenders can use AI to review code, test updates, and detect suspicious behavior. He notes that client developers and mining pools can respond to these attacks through ordinary upgrades, which would be less difficult than an emergency alteration of Bitcoin's monetary rules or transaction history.

The Ethereum co-founder sees the probability of 'actual breaks on hashes or PoW' as 'tiny', and notes that AI can improve software analysis and automate attack discovery, but does not automatically defeat established cryptographic functions.