Chanos Unveils $80 Billion Arbitrage Opportunity in MSTR, BTC Trade

Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos is once again targeting Michael Saylor's company MSTR, which he previously profitably shorted. In a recent X post, Chanos pointed out what he believes to be an $80 billion 'pure arbitrage' opportunity in the market.

The idea behind this potential trade involves shorting MSTR and simultaneously buying Bitcoin (BTC) in a proportionate amount, leveraging Strategy's BTC holdings. This strategy is based on the concept of arbitrage, which the CFTC defines as buying and selling identical or equivalent instruments to capture a price discrepancy.

Chanos' previous successful short sale of MSTR in 2025 saw him enter near a basic mNAV of 2.5x and exit near 1.23x. He emphasizes that this is not a recommendation for an $80 billion trade but rather highlighting the broad opportunity within which traders can time specific entries and exits.

The mNAV premium of MSTR to BTC holdings has fluctuated wildly over Strategy's corporate lifespan, trading between a 0.5x low and a 3.7x high since December 2020 when Strategy amassed over 70,000 BTC.

While Chanos is not disclosing his current position or hedge ratio, he suggests that the arbitrage opportunity presents an 'actionable spread' for traders to capitalize on.