Circle Target Slashed to $140: Is 118% Upside Still on the Table?

Circle Internet Group's (CRCL) stock price has been under pressure since its IPO, and Bernstein recently cut its target to $140 from $190. However, despite this reduction, the firm still sees significant upside potential in CRCL.

The analyst, Gautam Chhugani, notes that Circle's second-quarter results were broadly flat, with USDC supply ending Q2 at approximately $73 billion. Bernstein has also slashed its end-of-2026 USDC supply estimate by 37% to $83 billion and its 2028 figure by 40% to around $170 billion.

Despite these downward revisions, the firm's 10-year USDC supply growth rate remains at 32%, with total stablecoin supply expected to reach $4 trillion by 2035. Circle is forecasted to hold a 30% share of this market.

Bernstein attributes the decline in its target to an overestimation of the Open USD consortium threat, which it believes will eventually fade away. The firm points out that Circle has been signing memorandums of understanding with entities involved in the alliance and notes that even Visa management has expressed a commitment to remaining multi-coin and multi-chain.