CLARITY Act Delay Shifts Odds to 72% Senate Vote by October

The passage of the CLARITY Act through the US Senate has been delayed due to disagreements over ethics rules, specifically restrictions on elected officials' crypto holdings. Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed that Democrats will not agree to bring the bill up for a vote before recess, effectively ruling out a pre-recess vote.

Kalshi's markets immediately repriced in response to this news, with odds shifting from near-zero for a pre-recess vote to 72% for a Senate vote by October. The delay has concentrated traders' expectations on the October 1 deadline, with the January window sitting slightly lower at 58%.

The holdup is centered around ethics rules, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest, and market integrity, as Democrats push for tougher restrictions on elected officials' crypto holdings. Republicans need 60 votes to break a filibuster, making Democratic support crucial for the bill's passage.