CLARITY Act Passage in 2026 Doubts Rise as Senate Cloture Process Delayed

The passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 is now considered unlikely by prediction-market traders, following Senator John Thune's decision not to start a Senate cloture process before the August recess. This move has left the crypto market structure bill outside the procedural sequence needed for a near-term vote.

The Senate has only days before its state work period begins on August 10 and continues until September 11, limiting the remaining floor time. Investor's Business Daily reported that Kalshi traders have assigned a 27% chance to the bill becoming law in 2026, down from 82% earlier in the year.

The market has recorded more than $5.42 million in volume, with separate contracts citing implementation before July 1, 2027, at 41%, before October 1, 2027, at 58%, and before January 1, 2028, at 65%. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has argued that crypto can continue advancing even without immediate passage.

Journalist Eleanor Terrett suggested that procedural work on the continuing resolution helped explain the delay, while uncertainty over support and unresolved provisions likely affected Thune's decision. The bill would define federal oversight of digital assets, including rules for exchanges, decentralized finance, tokenized securities, and stablecoin rewards.