CLARITY Act Passage in 2026 Now Unlikely Amid Senate Delays

The prospects for the CLARITY Act's passage in 2026 have dimmed due to new delays in the US Senate. Prediction markets have reflected this shift, with Kalshi's market no longer pricing in the possibility of approval before July 1, 2027. According to Kalshi, contracts setting the date for the bill to take effect before July 1, 2027 fell 8 percentage points to 41% on the day.

The odds of the CLARITY Act's approval prior to October 1, 2027 remain at 58%, while the chances of it becoming law prior to January 1, 2028 have surged to 65%. The market has seen over $5.42 million in trading volume as participants reassess the bill's legislative prospects.

The latest setback comes after Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not seek cloture on the crypto market structure bill on Tuesday. Procedural issues surrounding a continuing resolution and unresolved ethics provisions have contributed to the delay.