CME Futures Activity Weighs Down Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin's price has been stuck in neutral as traders continue to hold back from making fresh purchases. According to recent data, activity in the CME futures market remains weak, limiting the chances of a new rally.

The BTC carry trade, which relies on the difference between spot prices and CME futures prices, is no longer paying off. The basis, or the gap between these two values, has remained below 5.5% this year, with a recent drop to below 2%. This has made the trade less attractive to traders.

Open interest on CME Bitcoin futures has also fallen to its lowest level since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in early 2024. Funding rates have started to rise, but Bitfinex notes that the basis needs to widen before the carry trade becomes attractive again.