Coinbase closes Bitcoin price prediction market for October 2026

Coinbase recently closed a prediction market that focused on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on October 6, 2026, at 12 PM EDT. The market, which expired on October 6, 2026, saw significant interest with a total trading volume of $4.7 million and interest of $1,197,469.66. Participants could trade contracts predicting whether BTC would reach a specific price at the specified time, with payouts based on the outcome.

The market operated under strict rules to ensure fairness and transparency. Trading was prohibited for individuals with material, non-public information or those employed by designated source agencies. The market's outcome was determined by an independent, regulated exchange using a stated 'source of truth,' such as official data or market prices. Payouts were made after settlement, with correct contracts paying out $1 each and incorrect contracts settling at $0.

Coinbase Financial Markets, the regulated derivatives entity behind the prediction market, emphasized the risks involved in trading such contracts. They noted that prediction markets involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of the entire investment. The platform also clarified that it is not liable for any errors or delays in content and that the information provided is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

Participants needed a Coinbase account and had to complete onboarding to trade. Funds could be transferred between the main Coinbase account and the derivatives account to facilitate trading. The market was open for trading 24/7, except during a weekly maintenance window from Thursday 3:00-5:00 AM ET.