Coinbase has launched a new prediction market called Stearns vs Shi, allowing users to trade contracts on future events. This market will close when the event occurs or by October 10, 2026, at 7:20 AM GMT+0, whichever comes first. The market operates on a simple Yes/No basis, where each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not. The current price reflects the market's odds, such as $0.65 indicating a 65% chance of the event occurring.
To participate, users need a Coinbase account and must complete onboarding with Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), the regulated derivatives entity. This process includes identity verification and basic income/net worth details. Once approved, users can fund their accounts and start trading using cash (USD and USDC) from their main Coinbase account. The funds will be transferred to their derivatives account for trading purposes.
Each market has clear rules and settlement policies based on the result, determined by an independent, regulated exchange using a stated 'source of truth,' such as official data or trusted news. Payouts occur after settlement, but transfers may be delayed on U.S. bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours. Trading is available 24/7, except during weekly maintenance from Thursday 3:00-5:00 am ET.
The platform emphasizes that prediction markets involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of the entire investment. Coinbase is not responsible for third-party content and does not provide investment advice. Fees vary by market and are shown in the trade preview before placing an order.