Coinbase Prediction Market Contract Draws $1.2M Investment

A prediction market on Coinbase Financial Markets has drawn significant attention with its recent contract, Jakupovic vs Ciric-Bagaric. The contract, which expires on October 4, 2026, involves a yes/no bet on the outcome of a specific event. The current price reflects a 65% chance of the event happening, with a total of $1.2M invested in the contract.

The contract prohibits trading by current players, coaches, and staff of the governing event, as well as paid employees of the league and league participants. It also prohibits trading by individuals who hold material, non-public information on the underlying event.

Trading on the contract is open 24/7, except during the weekly maintenance window. A fee is applied to each trade, which covers costs for operating the market and the broker fee.

Settlement on the contract will be based on the result of the event, with each correct contract settling at $1 and each incorrect contract settling at $0. Payouts will be made to traders after settlement, but may be delayed on U.S. bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours.