Coinbase Prediction Market on Shi vs Zarazua Closes After Three Years
Coinbase has launched a new prediction market focused on the outcome of a match between Shi and Zarazua. The market, which closed on October 6, 2026, saw a total trading volume of $3.3 million, with an interest of $1,296,640.56. The market allowed traders to bet on the final outcome of the event, with contracts priced based on the market's odds of the event occurring.
Traders could buy "Yes" contracts if they believed the event would happen or "No" contracts if they thought it would not. The price of each contract reflected the market's probability of the outcome. For example, a price of $0.65 indicated a 65% chance of the event occurring. If the event happened, "Yes" contract holders earned $1 per contract minus the price they paid, while "No" contract holders earned nothing.
The market was regulated by Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Trading was subject to certain prohibitions, including restrictions on current players, coaches, staff, paid employees, owners, and household members of those involved in the event. Additionally, persons with material, non-public information were not permitted to trade on the contract.
Payouts were based on an independent, regulated exchange determining the result using a stated "source of truth," such as official data or trusted news. Settlement transfers could be delayed on U.S. bank holidays, weekends, or outside banking hours. Fees varied by market and were shown in the trade preview before placing an order.