CoinShares Bets Against $80k as Hawkish Fed and Regulatory Hurdles Loom

CoinShares believes Bitcoin's price will not break above $80,000 this year. The firm points to a hawkish Federal Reserve and the stalled CLARITY Act as reasons for its prediction.

The latest move by the Fed saw interest rates rise to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the first increase since 2023. CoinShares' James Butterfill argues that a decisive break above $80,000 is unlikely without better inflation data or a clear shift in policy expectations.

Better inflation data would ease some pressure on the Fed, but it's unclear if this will happen anytime soon. Higher energy prices are keeping inflation rates high, and as a result, the Fed has little reason to soften its stance.

CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's legal status is settled, which means that the asset is shielded from regulatory setbacks. However, Ethereum and altcoins are not in the same position, as much of the stablecoin payment infrastructure runs on their networks.