Cowen: Bitcoin's Bear Market Still Alive with 65% Chance of Extending

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, believes there's still a 65% chance that Bitcoin's (BTC) cycle low lies ahead. This perspective keeps his bear market thesis alive despite recent gains.

Cowen notes that the current price near $78,300 does not confirm a bottom for BTC, as it has posted similar or larger bounces in prior years and still fell again in the fourth quarter of each midterm year.

The analyst points to Bitcoin's realized price near $53,000 as a historical marker for cycle lows. This figure sits near the level BeInCrypto flagged earlier as a key threshold for a Q4 bottom.

Cowen expects some headwinds for BTC over the next month and a half but believes that clearing October without a lower low would start to shift the odds toward the bulls. He also notes that time-based capitulation is a bigger risk than a specific price target.