Cowen Concedes: Bitcoin Surges Above $85,000, Defying Bear Market Forecast
Bitcoin's recent surge above $85,000 has left Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, eating his words. In a surprise move, he publicly admitted that his bearish Bitcoin call was incorrect and acknowledged that the cryptocurrency had broken decisively above the key price level.
Cowen based his forecast on cycle analysis, which projects Bitcoin's trajectory from patterns observed in previous four-year market periods. He argued that history still pointed toward lower prices before any durable recovery. However, the market had other plans, and Bitcoin reclaimed the mid-70,000s without hitting the predicted low.
His July memo suggested a fourth-quarter bottom, most likely in October, echoing midterm-year patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022. Some scenarios contemplated the downside of $44,000. Despite this, Cowen maintained that it was too early to declare the bear market over.
The market answered quickly and loudly, with Bitcoin's push past $85,000 liquidating more than $831 million in short positions within 24 hours. Long liquidations totaled roughly $130 million over the same span, according to CoinGlass data. This imbalance shows how heavily traders had positioned for a deeper low that never arrived.
Cowen responded with unusual candor, saying he was wrong and deserved the criticism coming his way. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called him one of the few consistently honest bears, noting that everyone eventually errs.