Cowen Sees Another Selloff Before BTC Reaches Final Cycle Low

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin (BTC) may not be out of the woods yet. According to him, historical midterm-year trends could indicate another sharp selloff before the end of the year.

In an interview with CoinTelegraph, Cowen explained that he uses a 'dynamic DCA' strategy when buying BTC. This involves purchasing during the second half of U.S. midterm election years, which has been his approach in 2018 and 2022.

Cowen notes that historically, Bitcoin tends to weaken during the first half of midterm years, with rallies often turning into lower highs before improving later in the year. He believes gradually entering the market reduces the risk of chasing rallies while preserving capital for another potential decline.

Despite Bitcoin's latest rally, Cowen sees another year-end selloff as possible. He points to 2018 and 2022, when bear market rallies preceded final cycle lows. A 10% to 20% S&P 500 correction could be the catalyst that pushes BTC below $60,000, with BTC bottoms historically coinciding with the second major equity correction of midterm years.

Cowen stresses that his bearish scenario has an expiration date. If Bitcoin remains above roughly $60,000 through the remainder of 2026 without another capitulation event, he wouldn't carry the bearish thesis into 2027.