Credit Crisis Could Send Bitcoin Soaring to $1 Million by 2030
Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at crypto investment firm Maelstrom, has reiterated his long-term forecast for Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. The former BitMEX co-founder believes that a potential credit crisis in the debt markets financing AI infrastructure spending could drive this rally.
The core of Hayes' argument is centered around a structural imbalance between the useful life of AI hardware and the terms of the loans used to buy it. Computing equipment depreciates quickly, but financing agreements typically extend over much longer timeframes, creating mounting pressure as hardware values decline while debt obligations remain intact.
Hayes expects growth in announced AI capital expenditure to begin decelerating during the second half of 2027, with effects becoming more apparent through 2028. If data-center revenues fail to justify massive sums committed to construction and computing equipment, losses could spread to banks, insurance companies, private credit funds, and infrastructure investors.
The International Monetary Fund has flagged similar concerns, citing Morgan Stanley estimates that data-center capital expenditure through 2028 could reach $2.9 trillion, far exceeding cash flow available from hyperscalers and increasing reliance on private credit, corporate debt, and securitization.