Crypto Analyst Rejects Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Theory

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has shifted his stance on Bitcoin’s infamous four-year cycle, a theory long tied to halving events. Gambardello now argues that global economic trends, not calendar cycles, drive Bitcoin’s price movements. He points to a clear link between Bitcoin’s performance and the business cycle, tracked by indicators like the ISM PMI, rather than halving dates.

Gambardello’s analysis shows that Bitcoin has historically weakened during economic contractions and surged during expansions. He suggests the perceived four-year cycle may have emerged because halvings often coincided with economic recoveries. The current market cycle also challenges the traditional model, with Gambardello noting that many expect a bottom in October 2026, while he believes it may have already occurred in June 2026 due to economic shifts.

The analyst also highlighted the role of spot ETF inflows, political trends, and market interest in Bitcoin’s recent rally. However, he cautioned that this rise may not represent the “true crypto bull market,” predicting stronger gains as economic expansion accelerates. Gambardello supported his thesis with assets like the copper-gold ratio and the Russell 2000, which also react to economic cycles.

Gambardello expects the Fed’s end of quantitative tightening in December 2025 to trigger a market normalization and economic expansion. His self-developed US Business Cycle Index recently signaled expansion, combining data from five regional Fed banks. He also believes AI-driven productivity could fuel economic growth, potentially mirroring the 1990s boom, with Bitcoin and crypto assets playing a key role.