Crypto Markets Rebound on Rate Shifts and Regulatory Optimism
The crypto market has shown signs of recovery in recent months, driven by changes in interest rates and lending conditions. In June, Bitcoin (BTC) tested multi-month lows around $58k before stabilizing through July in a range roughly between $56k and $64k. August saw a 25% rise in BTC, with it briefly trading above $82k in early September before retracing to around $76k as of September 16.
A key catalyst for this recovery was the reversal in ETF flows, where August saw $3.52B of net inflows, the strongest month of 2026, against just $172M in July and $4.5B of outflows in June. Optimism around the CLARITY Act also supported sentiment, although the bill failed to advance in the Senate on September 15.
The CME annualized basis broadly moved with the recovery, widening through July and August before moderating in September. Meanwhile, Treasury yields moved meaningfully higher, narrowing the pickup offered by CME basis over risk-free rates.