Crypto Recovery Raises Questions About Broad Bull Market

Crypto markets are seeing a recovery in activity, but it's unclear if this is the start of a broad bull market or just a rebound. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both recovered from their July losses, with Bitcoin rising about 38% to trade near $83,020 in late September and Ethereum recovering from around $1,610 to roughly $2,665 over the same period.

However, despite this improvement, Evan Ceolini, CEO of crypto exchange aggregator SwapSpace, notes that capital and user activity have not expanded evenly enough to make a broad bull-market case. He points out that stablecoin market caps remain below their 2026 highs, with USDT and USDC's combined market cap at $258.15 billion on September 30.

Ceolini also looks at decentralized trading activity and finds that while average daily DEX volume rose from $6.69 billion in July to $10.39 billion during the first 28 days of September, it remains below earlier highs. The increase is meaningful, but it has not yet developed into a sustained upward trend.

The recovery in DeFi lending is also limited, with Aave's TVL recovering from $11.63 billion in July to $17.93 billion in late September, but still about 41% below its January level. Ceolini treats lending as a useful test because borrowing and collateral activity tend to deepen when users are willing to take sustained risk.