Emerging Markets Central Banks Hold Steady as Inflation Concerns Persist

Chile's central bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 4.50% for a fifth straight meeting on Tuesday, according to Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). The bank has been in a good position to maintain steady rates due to low inflation expectations and the policy rate being near the top of its neutral range estimate.

Haddad also expects Poland's National Bank (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, despite delivering 200bps of cuts since July 2025 and the swaps curve implying 75bps of tightening in the next twelve months as inflation gains traction.

However, Haddad notes that Poland's positive real rates and favorable balance of payments backdrop continue to support the Polish Zloty (PLN).

In contrast, Peru's central bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 4.25% for a 12th consecutive meeting on Thursday, which could result in the Peruvian Sol (PEN) underperforming if real rates remain negative.

Türkiye's central bank is also expected to keep its policy rate at 37.00% for a fifth straight meeting on Thursday, as disinflation has stalled around 30% year-on-year and tight monetary policy remains justified.