Ethereum Exchange Supply Hits Record Low Amid Breakout Hopes

Ethereum's exchange supply has plummeted to its lowest level in years, sparking hopes of a potential breakout. According to data from Glassnode, roughly 15.5 million ETH are now held on exchanges, down 38% from the May 2023 peak of 25.2 million. This decline has accelerated since June 2025, with about 6 million coins leaving trading platforms.

The reduced exchange balances can lead to a decrease in immediately sellable float, but they do not necessarily determine price direction on their own during a broader market move. However, the current momentum is positive, as Ethereum's MVRV ratio has turned above its 160-day moving average of roughly 0.88 after crossing the trend line in late August.

The MVRV signal remains relatively new, but technical conditions point to a market nearing a larger move. Weekly volume has declined since late August, and the Bollinger Band Width Percentile is sitting near the bottom of its range. RSI was around 60 after cooling from roughly 80 in late August.

ETH remains above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438.85, an area that previously capped rallies from mid-March through mid-May. This support level could potentially open a move toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $2,919.89, about 18% higher.