Ethereum Price Nears Bottom as Exchange Reserves Fall

Ethereum has been trading below its overall cost basis since February, with more holders at a loss. The recent rally to $1,920 and subsequent reset lower meant sellers still have control in the market.

The realized price bands suggest a possible drop to $1.15k if the 2022 bear market cycle plays out once more, according to AMBCrypto.

However, some on-chain metrics point to organic growth and reduced speculative froth. Falling exchange reserves from 5 million ETH in mid-2025 to 3.8 million at the time of writing indicate accumulation from holders and easing selling pressure.

CryptoQuant's data also shows that market price is below the realized price, setting up favorable conditions for long-term investors to buy Ethereum on the cheap.

Crypto Onchain noted that Ethereum has been quiet over the past quarter, with median transaction fees 92% below the 90-day average. However, these fees rose by 16% over the past week, and new smart contract deployment surged 190% compared to the 90-day baseline.