Ethereum, Solana Supply Growth Could Fall Below Gold by 2031

Grayscale Research estimates that Ethereum and Solana's supply growth could fall significantly by 2031, potentially below gold's estimated annual rate of 1.8%. The predictions are based on proposed tokenomics reforms, including EIP-8363 for Ethereum, which aims to burn a larger share of validator consensus rewards as more ETH becomes staked across the network.

Under EIP-8363, the reward burn would increase with staking participation and reach 100% once the staking ratio reaches 50%. This would reduce net consensus yield from about 2.6% to 1.2%, according to Grayscale's modeling. The proposal remains a draft, so the estimate describes a modeled outcome rather than approved monetary policy.

On Solana, two proposals target issuance through different mechanisms. SIMD-0550 would double annual disinflation from 15% to 30%, accelerating the network's path toward lower supply growth. This change would move SOL toward its existing 1.5% terminal inflation rate by the first half of 2029 instead of 2032.

The proposals are currently in formal governance, with voting scheduled to close on August 18. If approved, their combined effect could push annual supply growth toward Grayscale's estimated 1.1% for Solana and 0.4% for Ethereum by 2031.