Ethereum Stalls at Triangle Pattern as Fed Decision Looms

Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) is forming the same triangle pattern that preceded its 31% surge in three days in late August, according to chartist Ali Martinez. The current setup has some differences from the earlier move, which was supported by a Treasury buyback announcement and a short squeeze.

The key event this week is the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision, and a rate hike could either boost or hinder Ethereum's price. A close above $2,600 would confirm the upside breakout, while a close below $2,405 would invalidate the pattern.

Ethereum needs a roughly 25% gain from its current price of $2,406 to reach $3,000, but it first has to reclaim $2,600. However, the previous rally was supported by hundreds of millions of dollars in weekly ETF inflows and a clear macro catalyst, which are not present this time.

The market is expecting Ethereum to remain within a relatively narrow range rather than make an immediate move toward $3,000. Prediction-market traders on Robinhood currently assign a 38% probability that Ethereum finishes September above $2,750.