A pollster named Wedgewood Polls admitted this week to fabricating data in its surveys, which were widely reported by major U.S. publications. The group claimed its actions were part of an “experimental project” to expose vulnerabilities in the polling industry. The revelation has raised concerns about the integrity of polling ahead of the midterms, with some candidates asserting their campaigns were negatively impacted by the false numbers.
Wedgewood Polls came under scrutiny after election analysis website FiftyPlusOne questioned the authenticity of its data. In a now-deleted statement, the pollster acknowledged fabricating data to demonstrate how easily a fake polling firm could gain credibility and highlight the lack of scrutiny in media and public commentary. Multiple national outlets, including the New York Times, Newsweek, MS NOW, and POLITICO, had used Wedgewood’s polls for their midterm reporting. The New York Times has since removed the data from its stories and detailed its vetting process for polls.
The scandal has sparked reactions from political figures and experts. Democratic Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow claimed that a Wedgewood poll showing her support plummeting to 9% contributed to the collapse of her campaign. McMorrow suspended her campaign on July 5, just one month before the primaries, after donations dried up and she faced pressure to exit the race. Jennifer Holdsworth, a Democratic strategist, said the fake poll led several donors to withdraw funding at a critical time.
Experts warn that fabricated polls can influence voter behavior and campaign support. Michael Traugott, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Michigan, noted that polls often shape the narrative of contested races and can affect voting patterns. Research has shown that polls can demobilize minority support and mobilize the majority, particularly among moderate voters who are more impressionable.