Fidelity Sounds Alarm on Bitcoin Bear Market

Fidelity Digital Assets has issued a warning that Bitcoin's bear market may not be over despite its strong August performance. The company notes that while the latest rally has improved market conditions, investors should still consider the possibility of another market bottom later this year.

Bitcoin posted its strongest monthly gain since late 2024 during August, with Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also recording substantial advances. This has led some investors to argue that the market may have already established a bottom, but Fidelity cautions against reading too much into one month's performance.

The company points to the four-year cycle model as another reason for caution. According to this pattern, Bitcoin's previous major bear market bottom occurred in November 2022, and if the roughly four-year pattern were to repeat, another potential bottom could emerge around November 2026. However, Fidelity emphasizes that investors should not treat the cycle as a precise forecasting model.