FOMC Day: Bitcoin Price Prediction Hanging by a Thread

Bitcoin's price prediction heading into FOMC day has one clear problem: nobody agrees on anything. The cryptocurrency was trading near $75,900 on September 16 after losing close to 4% in the previous session, dragged lower by news of the U.S. Senate's failed Clarity Act vote and traders repositioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's afternoon announcement.

The Fed Announcement Is the Room Everyone Is Watching

Markets had already decided what was coming before Fed Chair Powell said a word. Reuters reported that pricing ahead of the announcement reflected roughly a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield had recently moved above 5%, adding to the tightening already weighing on risk assets.

The key question for markets was the Fed's guidance and reaction function, not the basis points. For Bitcoin sitting at $76,000, a dovish surprise would be a gift. A hawkish tone would test the lower supports quickly.