FOMC Hike Odds Tipped by Heavy Economic Data Calendar This Week

A heavy data calendar is set to shape market expectations for potential US Federal Reserve rate hikes in October. The Fed currently prices a 64% chance of a 25 basis point increase, according to market expectations.

The week begins with key economic releases on Tuesday, including August JOLTS job openings and September consumer confidence figures. On Wednesday, core PCE inflation and Q2 GDP data will be released, followed by Thursday's ISM manufacturing PMI numbers. Friday's September jobs report rounds out the week's economic data.

The Bank of Japan's policy minutes are also due on Monday, which could have a significant impact on global bond markets if they hint at further rate hikes. Market participants are waiting to see whether hotter readings will push October hike odds higher or softer numbers will ease pressure.

More than 20 Fed speakers, including Chair Kevin Warsh, are scheduled to speak throughout the week, alongside earnings from Micron and Nike. These announcements will test whether the economy can absorb higher rates without slowing down.