Gambardello Abandons Four-Year Cycle Theory for Business Cycle Influence

Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has revised his view on the 'four-year cycle' approach to Bitcoin and the crypto market. Gambardello, who previously used the four-year cycle linked to Bitcoin halving events in his analyses, now believes the crypto market is primarily influenced by global economic expansion and contraction patterns.

According to Gambardello, examining Bitcoin's past rises and falls reveals a stronger correlation between price movements and the business cycle, tracked by indicators like the ISM PMI, rather than halving dates. The analyst argues that Bitcoin has weakened during periods of economic contraction since the first major bear market in 2011, while its upward trend has strengthened during periods when the business cycle has resumed expansion.

Gambardello notes that many past Bitcoin halvings have coincided with periods of economic recession to expansion, suggesting that the perception of a four-year cycle may have originated from this. He believes that the current market cycle also raises questions about the classic four-year model, citing the strong inflows into spot ETFs, expectations of a crypto-friendly political environment, and high market interest that played a significant role in Bitcoin previously surpassing its all-time high.