Goldman Sachs Sees $120 Brent Crude if Hormuz Disruptions Last Until 2027

Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price forecast, predicting that Brent crude could reach as high as $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist until 2027.

The bank's revised outlook reflects ongoing volatility and supply risks associated with the critical maritime chokepoint. Brent crude has already experienced fluctuations, reaching around $90 per barrel in recent weeks.

According to Goldman Sachs, the prolonged instability in the region could maintain a substantial supply-risk premium embedded in oil prices.

This development has implications for prediction markets, particularly those speculating on whether crude oil will reach a new all-time high by the end of the year. The market for a new all-time high by September 30 is priced at just 1.2% YES, while the December 31 market shows a more substantial 9.5% YES.

The situation is further complicated by various factors, including OPEC's production decisions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and global oil demand trends.