Grayscale: Bitcoin Bear Market May End if Fed Halts Rate Hikes

Grayscale suggests Bitcoin's bear market could last until September or October if its historic four-year cycle repeats, which typically sees about 80% losses. However, the firm believes Federal Reserve policy and U.S. economic growth now play a bigger role in Bitcoin's price movements.

If the Fed stops raising interest rates and the U.S. economy remains resilient through 2026, Bitcoin may have already bottomed. This marks a shift from relying solely on Bitcoin's halving cycle to considering broader macroeconomic factors influencing institutional demand and market behavior.