Green September for Bitcoin Raises Questions About Q4 Prospects
Bitcoin's September performance is often considered its worst month on record, but this year it has managed to beat that trend. Despite a turbulent few weeks, including a Senate vote against advancing the CLARITY Act and a Fed rate hike, Bitcoin's price closed August at $78,563 and currently trades at $81,214 as of September 19, up about 3.4% so far this month.
The question for traders heading into October is whether a green September like this one points to a strong fourth quarter. The record shows that Bitcoin has closed higher in each of the last three Septembers, and four out of five years since 2022 have seen a gain. However, the sample size is limited, with only 13 years of data.
Last year broke the trend when Bitcoin rose 5.2% in September 2025 but then fell 23.1% in the fourth quarter. This year's performance could be influenced by two factors: whether ETF inflows return after August's $3.8 billion, and whether the Fed hikes again on October 28.
If ETF inflows return and the Fed pauses, Bitcoin may see a gain of 7.7% from its current price to close 2026 above its starting price. However, if flows stay negative and the Fed hikes again, a green September might mean a repeat of last year's performance.