Hayes Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Target Amid AI Debt Risks

Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, is sticking to his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. He believes this target is tied to a chain of events, including a slowdown in artificial intelligence (AI) investment, a wave of credit losses, and monetary easing from policymakers.

Hayes argues that the current boom in AI-driven borrowing could expose vulnerabilities in financial markets. He compares the situation to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that the greatest risks lie within lenders and infrastructure projects, rather than technology giants themselves.

The data suggests Hayes may be onto something. Recent figures show AI-related borrowing in the US leveraged-finance market is projected to reach $88 billion in 2026, up sharply from $20 billion in early 2025. The International Monetary Fund also notes that the financing gap between expected capital expenditures and operating cash flow is drawing attention to the role of non-traditional credit channels.

Hayes anticipates that AI capital expenditure growth will begin decelerating in the second half of 2027, which could make it easier to identify projects based on overly optimistic assumptions about future demand. This, he suggests, could expose weaknesses in the sector's credit structure and ultimately lead to a surge in Bitcoin.