Hayes Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Target Amid Potential AI Credit Crisis

Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has reaffirmed his prediction of a $1 million Bitcoin (BTC) price target. According to Hayes, this could happen due to a potential artificial-intelligence infrastructure credit crisis in 2027-2028.

Hayes argues that AI infrastructure spending is similar to the 2008 financial crisis rather than the 2000 dot-com crash, as it resembles a credit story more than an earnings story. He believes that growth in AI capital spending will slow down and governments will respond by creating money, leading to a sustained advance in Bitcoin.

Hayes suggests that mid-to-late 2027 could be a crucial period when announced AI capital-expenditure growth starts to lose momentum, with the slowdown becoming more apparent in 2028. He also warns that financing models, which spread graphics-processing unit costs over five to six years despite chip performance improving on a two- to three-year cycle, could weaken borrowers and financial institutions if spending on AI infrastructure loses pace.

In his scenario, a credit event larger than the 2008 crisis would lead authorities to inject fiat liquidity, some of which could move into crypto markets. Hayes compared this potential chain with the U.S. housing crisis from 2006 through 2008 and stressed that neither the timing nor the scale of an AI credit event is established.