Hayes Sees $1 Million Bitcoin as Governments Print Trillions

Maelstrom founder Arthur Hayes predicts that when the AI credit bubble unwinds, governments will print enough money to send Bitcoin (BTC) to $1 million. According to Hayes, the current AI boom is a credit bubble, not a tech bubble.

Hayes argues that the dot-com crash was an earnings story because companies had no revenue, while the 2008 crisis was a credit story because lenders poured money into property that stopped appreciating. He believes that AI is similar to the 2008 version, with hyperscalers building data centers that are fundamentally real estate projects.

Lenders are treating this debt as if they're funding Apple (AAPL) rather than Lehman Brothers, Hayes says. When AI capital expenditure growth decelerates in 2027 and contracts in 2028, the weakest credits will fail, and the government will step in with a bailout larger than anything seen after 2008.

Hayes believes that Bitcoin has already bottomed or is very close to it, with the asset likely sideways between $60,000 and $70,000 near-term and potential downside to $50,000. He thinks that the eventual bailout will dwarf the trillions printed after the financial crisis, which means Bitcoin is positioned to absorb the liquidity wave directly.