Hayes Sees $1 Million Bitcoin Target Hinging on AI Credit Downturn

Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has reiterated his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. According to Hayes, a potential acceleration in late 2027 or early 2028 is linked to stress in debt-funded artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The AI credit crisis thesis, as presented by Hayes, treats much of the infrastructure spending as debt-backed property development. This boom is described as a 'credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.'

Hayes expects equipment to age while borrowers remain responsible for repayments arranged when revenue expectations were higher. He predicts that growth in announced AI capital spending will begin slowing during the second half of 2027, with the slowdown becoming clearer in 2028.

Hayes's forecast depends on policymakers responding to losses among borrowers and financial institutions with measures that expand liquidity. This could include Washington purchasing computing capacity or providing financial assistance to insurers facing losses on AI-linked debt.