Hayes Sees AI Bubble Bursting into Credit Crisis for Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has published an essay titled 'Situationship' in which he argues that the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom could end as a credit crisis rather than a dot com style equity collapse.

In his scenario, investors are treating AI capital expenditure as if every dollar supports a high margin technology business, but Hayes views much of this spending differently. He compares it to property development, where data center land, buildings, power connections and cooling systems can lose economic value as newer chips become more efficient.

Hayes expects announced AI capital spending growth to begin slowing during the second half of 2027 and become clearer in 2028. He also expects markets to eventually reward companies that reduce construction plans.

In his essay, Hayes argues that an eventual slowdown in data center construction could expose weak borrowers and financiers, prompting government intervention and broader monetary easing. This, he believes, could support a renewed Bitcoin bull market.