Hayes Sees AI Credit Bubble Leading to $1 Million Bitcoin Price

Crypto exchange BitMEX and fund Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes thinks people have misclassified the ongoing AI trade.

In his latest essay, Hayes argues that the infrastructure buildout is a credit story like the 2008 financial crisis, not an earnings story like the dot-com bust of 2000.

Hyperscalers are borrowing against massive data centers stuffed with rapidly depreciating chips, which lenders believe they're financing as technology. However, Hayes says the underlying asset is more akin to real estate.

The break will come when announced capex stops accelerating, around late 2027 or early 2028. But credit will continue flowing past that point, just like mortgage lending did in 2007, until AI debt becomes unsustainable and drags down over-levered entities.

Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage by printing more money than they did during the 2008 crisis. This flood of liquidity will supposedly bottom out Bitcoin and drive it toward $1 million.