IEA Cuts Oil Supply Forecast, Tightening Energy-Driven Credit Relief for Bitcoin

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its forecast for global oil supply in 2026, predicting an average of 100.7 million barrels a day, down from 102 million in August. This downward revision is a significant 1.3 million barrels a day.

The IEA also forecasts a decline in global oil consumption by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 compared to 2025. However, this reduced demand has not alleviated the physical tightness in supply, as observed inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August.

The news may seem positive for Bitcoin investors, but it could actually prolong their financial struggles. If persistent energy pressure keeps inflation expectations high, cheaper credit relief for borrowers may be delayed.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that renewed energy pressure and rising longer-term expectations are risks to the economy. He stated he would consider a rate hike if August's inflation reversed progress towards disinflation.