IonQ Estimates Quantum Computer Can Break Bitcoin's Secp256k1 in Under 26 Days

IonQ, a leading full-stack quantum platform and foundry, has published an end-to-end resource estimate showing that its fault-tolerant trapped-ion quantum computer with about 20,000 physical qubits could solve the secp256k1 elliptic-curve discrete logarithm problem in just under 26 days.

The study estimates a device footprint of 19,397 physical qubits and 1,457 logical qubits, with the computation mapped through the underlying quantum error-correction circuits. This result highlights potential risks to elliptic-curve signatures used in digital assets and other authentication systems.

IonQ's research team optimized in tandem the algorithm, compiler, hardware architecture, and error-correction layer to break secp256k1, which is one of the most scrutinized cryptography standards in production today. The company chose this specific application because it has significant implications for blockchain technology, including Bitcoin.

The study also notes that the algorithms meant to replace elliptic-curve-secured systems require rigorous stress-testing and are affected by this class of attack.