J.P. Morgan has made a bold prediction about Bitcoin's future performance, suggesting it will outpace stocks and bonds over the next decade. In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released in October 2026, the bank forecasts Bitcoin will return 10% annually over the next 10 years, compared to 7.5% for large U.S. stocks. While this projection is significantly lower than Bitcoin's 43.9% compound annual growth rate over the past four years, it still positions the cryptocurrency as a top performer among major asset classes.
The bank acknowledges Bitcoin's high volatility, expecting 55% annual swings, more than triple the 18% volatility anticipated for large U.S. stocks. Despite this risk, J.P. Morgan describes Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing, noting its limited supply could help maintain its purchasing power over time. However, the bank does not recommend owning Bitcoin, even as it projects the cryptocurrency to beat stocks over the next decade.
For investors considering Bitcoin, J.P. Morgan suggests a cautious approach. Research from BlackRock in December 2024 indicated that a 2% Bitcoin allocation in a traditional 60/40 portfolio accounted for 5% of its total risk, while a 4% allocation accounted for 14%. Morgan Stanley recommended in late 2025 that the most aggressive portfolios should hold no more than 4% in Bitcoin. This suggests most investors should allocate less than 5% to the asset, especially if its volatility could cause anxiety.
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team, however, does not currently include Bitcoin among its top 10 stock picks for investors. The team's average return of 874% significantly outperforms the S&P 500's 209% return, highlighting alternative investment opportunities that may offer strong returns without the same level of risk.