JPMorgan Asset Management has forecasted that Bitcoin (BTC) will deliver stronger returns than US stocks and gold over the next decade, though it cautioned that the cryptocurrency's volatility makes it a poor choice for portfolio diversification at present.
The bank's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report projected an annualized return of 10% for Bitcoin, outpacing large-cap US stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. Despite the optimistic outlook, JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin's unstable market correlations currently prevent it from serving as an effective diversifier, labeling it instead as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.
JPMorgan's projections included both bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin. The bull case estimated an annualized return of 16.6%, while the bear case predicted an annualized loss of 11.2%. These calculations considered factors such as BTC supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold, and network adoption.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan responded positively to Bitcoin's inclusion in the report, quoting on X, 'First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.' Hougan's firm, Bitwise, had previously issued a more bullish forecast, projecting Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.