JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outpacing Gold as Institutional Hedges Unwind

JPMorgan analysts anticipate that Bitcoin will outperform gold in relative performance if institutional investors begin unwinding their defensive hedges in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This prediction is based on recent data showing a marked disparity between the two markets, despite both experiencing increased institutional exposure following the Federal Reserve's July meeting.

According to JPMorgan, net flows into ETFs indicate that gold has led institutional recovery throughout the year. However, underlying derivatives metrics reveal a different scenario, with crypto market participants maintaining elevated levels of downside protection through options contracts.

The bank's analysis notes that short interest on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is near its highest recorded level in 2026, while the put-to-call open interest ratio on IBIT options remains above the historical average of equivalent instruments like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). This divergence suggests that institutional traders are assigning a defensive bias toward cryptocurrency relative to gold.

JPMorgan's stance has evolved gradually throughout the current financial year, with analysts estimating the average production cost of Bitcoin at $77,000 in early February 2026. However, they also acknowledged that the market price lingered below this estimated extraction cost for five consecutive months, which is a significant discrepancy.