Ju Sees 3-5x Advance for Bitcoin Bull Cycle

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes Bitcoin's current bull cycle will deliver a more moderate advance of 3x to 5x, rather than the parabolic 10x or greater rallies seen in some earlier cycles.

Ju argues that structural changes in Bitcoin's market have reduced the conditions for extreme upside and downside moves. He points to growing institutional ownership and Bitcoin's larger market capitalization as factors dampening volatility on both sides of the market.

According to Ju, the current cycle differs from earlier periods dominated by retail investors and relatively low liquidity. In those markets, hot money could fuel rapid vertical rallies before triggering drawdowns of about 80%. However, with increased participation from institutional investors and a larger market capitalization, a repeat of the most extreme historical price cycles is less likely.

Ju highlights several on-chain indicators that support his view, including Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, which has never fallen below 1 during the current cycle. He also notes that early Bitcoin holders, or 'OG' whales, have halted distributions during this cycle, and futures-market positioning reflects aggressive long exposure near cycle lows.