Kalshi Perpetual Futures Markets Exposed

A recent analysis of Kalshi trading records by CoinDesk has revealed a peculiar pattern in Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures markets. The study found that more than half of the volume examined was concentrated in specific recurring dollar amounts, raising questions about the breadth of participants behind the high volume.

For Ethereum trades between September 17 and 20, trades within $2 of $5,499 accounted for $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million sample volume. On the Bitcoin side, two trade sizes of approximately $2,500 and $5,000 represented 54% of the $8.5 million sample.

The analysis focused on Kalshi's perpetual futures markets, which are known for prediction markets. The pattern emerging in these contracts, which do not expire, suggests that a significant portion of trading activity may be automated or driven by specific strategies rather than individual investors.

Kalshi's head of crypto responded to claims of inflated volume by stating that one of the charts used covered prediction markets, not perpetual futures. However, the response did not address which accounts made the repeated Ethereum futures trades, leaving questions about participant identities and trade structures unanswered.