Kalshi Traders See 56% Chance of Bitcoin Falling Below $55K by Year's End

Traders on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, are betting that Bitcoin will dip below $55,000 at some point before December 31. As of July 25, the contract sits at 57 cents per share, implying a 56% probability of this outcome.

This is actually an improvement for Bitcoin bulls compared to earlier in the year. On June 3, when Bitcoin was trading around $64,000, there was a 66% chance that it would fall below $55,000.

The contract on Kalshi resolves the moment Bitcoin touches $55,000, not just if it closes at or above that price. This means a brief wick lower over a volatile weekend could be enough to trigger the contract.