Kalshi Traders See 59% Odds of XRP Falling Below $1 by 2026

XRP (XRP) is struggling to establish a clear trend in the market, and traders on prediction platform Kalshi are increasingly positioning for a downside break below $1. According to recent data from Kalshi, bettors assign a 59% probability that XRP will trade below $1 at some point before the end of 2026.

This skew toward a sub-$1 scenario underlines ongoing uncertainty around XRP's near-term price ceiling. The token has repeatedly moved into and out of 'bullish territory' in recent months without sustaining momentum, leaving would-be breakout narratives vulnerable to shifting macro and crypto-specific catalysts.

However, July has delivered a modest reprieve for XRP, with the token up about 5.6% month-to-date, breaking a stretch of consistently negative performance. The $1 area remains a key psychological level, with buyers defending it despite fragile conviction.