Crypto

Macro FUD Takes Aim at Bitcoin's August Rally

Guavy AI Editorial Team Published August 2, 2026

Instruments

BTC

Bitcoin's August rally is under pressure as macroeconomic factors weigh on the cryptocurrency. The USD/JPY pair has dropped over 3% this week, with Japan reportedly spending $52.8 billion defending the yen and the U.S. Treasury selling euros to buy yen for the first time since 1998.

The move has pushed the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. This tightening of liquidity conditions is expected to reduce capital flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin, increasing the chances of downside pressure.

Kalshi traders are now betting on BTC breaking below $59k, and a weaker U.S. dollar has historically been a tailwind for risk assets. However, rising Treasury yields are changing the equation, as investors can earn higher returns from lower-risk assets.

Unless macroeconomic headwinds ease, a bearish August ROI is becoming a more realistic outcome for Bitcoin.

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