MARA Stock Surges Past Morgan Stanley's Revised Target Amid Bitcoin Price Rally

MARA Holdings shares closed at $13.24 on Friday, September 18, after a 13.75% surge in price. This rally came despite Morgan Stanley's revised target of $11 for the stock, which is still below its current market value.

The bank's analyst, Stephen Byrd, assigned a value to MARA's power infrastructure project but used only a 20% probability that it will ultimately energize. The company's case now spans two businesses with different timeframes: bitcoin mining, which can be re-priced immediately, and data-center infrastructure, which requires land, power, permits, interconnection work, tenants, and capital before generating contracted cash flow.

MARA's balance sheet supplies real backing but not a clean floor for the equity. At June 30, it held 35,577 bitcoin and $421.3 million of cash, valuing them at roughly $2.5 billion. However, 9,270 bitcoin were loaned or pledged.

The company's second-quarter operating results show why its stock remains highly sensitive to bitcoin. Revenue was down 27% from a year earlier, and the net loss was $611.3 million, despite a 22% increase in energized mining capacity.