Mature Market May Limit BTC Gains, But Invite Long-Horizon Capital
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes that this Bitcoin bull cycle will deliver 3-5x returns, rather than a parabolic 10x rally. According to him, the market has matured and institutional ownership is growing, which is changing the dynamics of price movements.
The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, reflects this shift. It shows less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels than previous cycles. Additionally, the MVRV never fell below 1 in this cycle, indicating that holders as a whole never went underwater.
This means that investors are taking a more patient approach, rather than relying on hot money for explosive rallies. As a result, the trade-off has changed: giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash. This invites long-horizon capital and could lead to Bitcoin being viewed as actual money, stable enough to use and trusted enough to hold.